Is Your Social Network Ready for the Big One? A Glimpse of Epicenter 2018

This week about 150 disaster preparedness professionals gathered in San Francisco's Presidio for Epicenter 2018, a conference on disaster preparedness hosted by the San Francisco Department of Emergency Services and the Salvation Army. Although, as the name implies, the main topic was preparing for the big shaker, there was also some valuable information passed along from lessons learned during the recent Wine Country wildfires and the tsunami at Fukushima. While it's impossible to summarize everything covered in two days, here are some interesting tidbits.

But first, a little background. Why are all of these disaster preparedness officials and nongovernment organizations (NGOs) gathering now?

Unfortunately..."You Are Here" on this fault map

California and, specifically, the San Francisco Bay Area is overdue for a 7+ quake on both the Hayward and San Andreas faults. Sandwiched between those faults are Marin County and San Francisco. Crossing those faults from east to west are most of the communications and infrastructure (freeways, power grids, water conduits) connecting these areas to the rest of the state. It's expected that when the big shaker comes, movement in the Hayward fault in particular will snap the communications and power lines crossing that fault and the resulting isolated Bay Area will be on its own. The term disaster preparedness folks in the Bay Area often use for this is "Haywired." (Get it? Literally the wires across this fault will not be able to take a slip and they'll just snap).

San Francisco has Invested to Get Ready
According to San Francisco Mayor Mark Farrell and City Administrator Naomi Kelly, who both spoke at the conference, the city has been preparing for this expected event every since Loma Prieta. "Our strategy has been taking small bites out of a big problem," said Kelly, who reported San Francisco has spent $11 billion in infrastructure including a new self-sufficient communications system to prepare itself. This was evident by the several mobile command posts and communications trucks on display in the parking lot outside of the event.

The Challenge in Los Angeles
According to Leslie Luke, the deputy director of the Los Angeles County Office of Emergency Management, Southern California is attempting to be equally prepared, but the challenges they face are even more monumental. Here are some of the considerations they are facing:

• More than 2.7 million people will need to be fed in Los Angeles County after a large earthquake or similar disaster. That's 5.5 million meals a day.
• More than 58,000 homeless people live in LA County on an ongoing basis. They'll need to be housed and fed as well.
• More than 125,000 tourists are in LA County on any given day. They'll need to be cared for and sheltered with the rest of the population.

Carol Parks, community preparedness and engagement division chief for the City of Los Angeles Emergency Management Department, noted that 6 million people are in the LA area on any given day. These people rely on a network of mom and pop markets and 230 large grocery stores run by brand name chains. These stores are in turn supplied by 37 food distribution centers to the east. Her concern is that a major earthquake could knock out freeways and eliminate power needed to pump gas at gas stations therefore making it impossible for trucks to move food and other supplies from the distribution centers in the east into the Los Angeles Metro Area.

"Eighty percent of the problem (post a disaster) is trucks, drivers and gas," added Philip J. Palin, principal investigator for supply chain resilience at the Institute for Public Research.

Sometimes It's Who You Know, Not What You Know

Dr. Daniel Aldrich

Though there were many valuable presentations given on earthquake response from government authorities, one of the out of the box talks came from Dr. Daniel Aldrich, professor of political science, public policy and urban affairs for Northeastern University.

Dr. Alrich and his students have conducted massive surveys of the victims of Katrina and Fukushima to find and measure variables key to both survival and the desire by victims to return to an affected region and rebuild. What they found is that those in regions affected by storms, floods and tsunamis have different experiences based on their social network. In general, people that have a good network of friends and actually know their neighbors report less anxiety and improved mental health in general and, more important for a region's recovery, decide to return and rebuild.

Dr. Aldrich refers to neighbors as "Zero Responders." Because they are there even before first responders (i.e. firemen) and second responders (i.e. The Red Cross), they are the first to help neighbors dig themselves out of debris and find safety. Where do you find this "first line of defense" prior to an actual disaster taking place? Dr. Aldrich recommends attending community meetings, joining your PTA Board and generally getting to know the folks around you so when a disaster strikes, they are looking for you and concerned about your well being. Dr. Adrich noted that these community connections or, "horizontal connections" as he put it:

• Saved lives during the Fukushima tsunami
• Sped up recovery of neighborhoods after Katrina 
• Improved the mental health of survivors in both situations.

Santa Rosa's McGlynn

Sean McGlynn, city manager for Santa Rosa, noted that this "neighbors helping neighbors" phenomenon was also a key factor during last year's wildfires in the wine country. "The community helped themselves," noted McGlynn. "If your neighbor didn't help you then it wasn't going to be a good end of story for you. He said this also helped the city begin to address recovery issues "almost from the beginning.

This was especially important for the piece of mind of those staffing the Emergency Operations Center as they balanced dealing with community needs and the needs of their own families. "Sixty-two of our employees lost their homes during the fires," noted McGlynn.

No Really...Get to Know Your Neighbors and Your Local Government

We've all seen the list of things you need to get ready for a big disaster like an earthquake. One gallon of water per day per person...check. Food you can consume without adding water or heat to prepare it...check. A battery operated radio with lots of spare batteries...check. A five-gallon bucket with liner bags and wipes you can use for personal sanitation...ewwww, but check. ...and the list goes on from there.

But, what came out of Epicenter 2018 and Dr. Aldrich's contribution to it was that, while supply chain resilience and the quick actions of first reponders are crucial, the connections between people that, as he put it, "bond, bridge and link" members of an affected community, are key to making it through something really big. Because, and I realize I'm stating the obvious, if cables across faults snap and bridges and freeways are either closed, flooded (hello Hwy 37) or congested, those bonds may become the most important in your life at a time when you need them the most.

eric.winkler@redcross.org